John Manley: Unionism is condemned to continually shoot itself in the foot

Former DUP leader Peter Robinson once remarked that unionism was “too quick to look for Lundys rather than converts”. Speaking to the Irish News in 2021, his future successor Gavin Robinson likened this trait to the Protestant tradition of challenging orthodoxies. Yet the logical outcome of this approach is not the unionist unity its adherents so often advocate but fragmentation.

In the fallout from the resurrected Drumcree dispute we are witnessing another potential fracturing of unionism and perhaps the beginnings of a long-anticipated realignment which is supposed to see the emergence of two distinct wings reflecting different approaches on how best to secure the union.

It’s argued that the consolidation of what can be termed ‘pragmatic’ unionists from the DUP and the UUP would create a more inclusive, forward-looking party, while the remainder would gravitate towards a more ‘traditional’, power-sharing-sceptic bloc, best represented by Jim Allister’s TUV.

Locating most individual unionist politicians on this sliding scale can be difficult, as their attitude can change depending on context and circumstances. Do Gavin Robinson and Carla Lockhart represent these two strands of unionism? The answer is sometimes, which is why it’s so difficult to draw clear demarcation lines in unionism.

In simplistic terms, the traditionalists regard symbolism and identity as crucially important, while the pragmatists see diminishing returns in a unionism that is exclusionary and regressive. The pragmatists also support the maintenance of the Stormont institutions, believing devolution is a demonstration that Northern Ireland can work.

It essentially boils down to the difference between thinking tactically and strategically. Adopting a principled stance on the Windsor Framework and winning court cases on parading may arguably deliver short-term advantages but it’s misguided to think such agitation advances unionism’s greater goal.

It’s an approach that smokes out the Lundys but scares away potential converts. Over the course of recent weeks Gavin Robinson has shifted his weight between both camps but at the moment, he’s among the pragmatists, showing little appetite for collapsing Stormont. But his ‘no business as usual’ approach to power-sharing with Sinn Féin has yet to deliver any tangible sanction.

The very public attacks from the DUP on First Minister Michelle O’Neill indicate deteriorating relations between the Executive’s biggest parties but that’s nothing new. Ms Lockart has called for “profound consequences” in response to Sinn Féin ministers’ alleged illegality on the Garvaghy Road but her leader believes that walking away from devolution will cost his party more than it gains.

Newton Emerson: Sinn Féin is betting on a ‘Bryson bounce’ for the Assembly election Opens in new window David McCann: What Sinn Féin’s new Stormont candidates tell us about its plans Opens in new window The longer the Drumcree saga drags on – and it shows little sign of abating – the more difficult it is for the East Belfast MP to claim his approach is effective.

His leadership isn’t immediately under threat but only because there are no prospective successors. Yet the possibility remains that he may lose at least one MP, a move that would further undermine both his and his party’s authority. UUP leader Jon Burrows.

PICTURE: LIAM MCBURNEY/PA (Liam McBurney/PA) It’s difficult to see how this can play out well for the DUP as it appears damned either way, while Ulster Unionist leader Jon Burrows looks best placed to exploit the adoption of a relatively moderate, pragmatic line that is critical of Sinn Féin yet at the same time not led by the Portadown Orangemen and their determinedly uncompromising allies.

We can only speculate about how unionism would be coping with this issue if it did not have the actions of Sinn Féin ministers to get exercised over. It’s clear that the louder the DUP complains about apparent lawbreaking, the more support for Sinn Féin galvanises. The latest endowment from the DUP gift that keeps on giving is a revitalised Sinn Féin, which has moved from anguished to assured in just a few short weeks.

The SDLP and People Before Profit are also enjoying a fillip from the return to street politics but not quite to the same degree as their larger rival. Sinn Féin’s uplift from the Drumcree shambles, which is expected to be confirmed by forthcoming polling, has conveniently dovetailed rather than prompted a fresh Stormont election strategy.

The true intent of running sitting MPs, beyond the obvious aim of maximising the party’s presence in the Assembly, isn’t entirely clear but if nothing else it demonstrates ambition. Contrast this buoyancy with DUP infighting and the desire within unionism’s ranks to reopen old wounds.

The pragmatists know that for unionism to prosper it ought to be confident and inclusive, but that innate tendency to look for Lundys instead of converts condemns it to always shoot itself in the foot.