Richard Orrell’s Top Picks for Oct. 16, 2026

Published: October 16, 2026 at 1:21p.m. EDT Richard Orrell, portfolio manager at RN Croft Financial Group, shares his outlook on ETFs. Richard Orrell, Portfolio Manager, RN Croft Financial Group Focus: ETFs Top Picks: TD U.S.

Equity Index ETF , Vanguard FTSE Developed ex North America High Dividend Yield Index ETF , Franklin Bissett Ultra Short Bond Fund MARKET OUTLOOK: In recent client conversations, we’ve discussed a familiar wall of worry: trade policy and tariffs, persistent inflation, elevated energy costs, upcoming U.S. midterm elections, Middle East geopolitical tensions, and the trajectory of interest rates.

While no strategy buys every bottom or sells every top, we can control how we execute our plan when volatility creates opportunities. With both U.S. and Canadian markets sitting near all-time highs, now is an ideal time to review your target asset allocation. Has equity drift pushed your portfolio out of alignment?

Disciplined rebalancing and asset allocation remain your best defense for long-term growth. Normal market pullbacks of five per cent are expected; we generally evaluate strategic portfolio shifts around a 15 per cent equity drawdown. Recent performance divergence between the Magnificent 7 and the broader market warrants attention, as sustainable market advances require healthy market breadth.

While many individual equities are already down 15–20 per cent from their highs, the current earnings season should offer valuable clarity on forward guidance. The U.S. macro regime remains remarkably resilient, anchored by sustained enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) capex spilling over into real-world infrastructure, power generation, and industrials.

We remain bullish on the U.S. economy over the next three to six months. Provided bond yields stabilize, technology is well-positioned to lead equity markets higher in the fourth quarter (Q4). In Canada, commodity strength offers isolated support to the S&P/TSX Composite.

However, structural headwinds including heavy household debt, subdued productivity, and trade policy uncertainty surrounding the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) renegotiations weigh on broader corporate earnings. Meanwhile, sticky inflation limits Bank of Canada flexibility amid slowing domestic growth.

How to set BNN Bloomberg as your preferred source on Google Market-moving news, fast: Get the BNN Bloomberg App now Sign up for the Market Call Top Picks newsletter at bnnbloomberg.ca/newsletters TOP PICKS: Richard Orrell's Top Picks: TD U.S. Equity Index ETF, Franklin Bissett Ultra Short Bond Fund & more Richard Orrell, portfolio manager at RN Croft Financial Group, shares his top stock picks to watch in the market.

TD U.S. Equity Index ETF (TPU TSX) This ETF tracks a broad U.S. equity market index of large capitalization US stocks. The benchmark is provided by Solactive and its performance has been slightly better than SPY over multiple timeframes.

I own this ETF in my client portfolios. The largest holdings are Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet. The Management Expense Ratio (MER) is 0.07 per cent.

There’s an overweight towards technology by about seven per cent, therefore it works well with my outlook for a strong Q4 in the technology sector. Vanguard FTSE Developed ex North America High Dividend Yield Index ETF (VIDY TSX) This ETF offers high dividend yields from international equities, delivering a reliable quarterly cash flow for income-focused investors.

It provides broad geographic exposure across major developed markets outside Canada and the U.S., including Japan, the UK, Australia, and Switzerland. Holding nearly 600 established blue-chip stocks like HSBC, Shell, and Nestlé, it effectively minimizes single-stock risk across key global sectors.

With a low MER of 0.31 per cent, it serves as a cost-effective vehicle for international diversification. Ultimately, it is well-suited for investors seeking passive growth and steady international dividend income without expanding their North American footprint. Franklin Bissett Ultra Short Bond Fund (FHIS TSX) This ETF serves primarily as a high-liquidity, low-volatility component within an investment portfolio.

With an average duration of roughly 0.66 years, it carries minimal interest rate risk and experiences significantly lower price fluctuations during market shifts. It is designed to generate a higher yield than standard savings accounts and cash equivalents by investing in high-quality short-term corporate and government debt.

Unlike GICs or fixed-term deposits, the ETF trades intraday, allowing investors to access their funds at any time without early withdrawal penalties or lock-up periods. Additionally, active management and an average credit quality of A allow the fund to capture market opportunities while maintaining a defensive position against equity market downturns.

With a MER of 0.17 per cent, it provides active management at only several points above similar passive ETFs. This is a recent addition to some of our client portfolios at Croft. DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND TPU TSX Y Y Y VIDY TSX N N Y FHIS TSX N N Y PAST PICKS: JUNE 12, 2026 Richard Orrell's Past Picks: BMO USA High-Quality ETF, Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF & more Richard Orrell, portfolio manager at RN Croft Financial Group, discusses his past stock picks and how they're doing in the market today.

BMO USA High-Quality ETF (ZUQ TSX) Then: $107.53 Now: $115.72 Return: 8% Total Return: 8% Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF (SPGP NYSE) Then: US$120.39 Now: US$123.52 Return: 3% Total Return: 3% Global X Active Canadian Municipal Bond ETF (HMP TSX) Then: $9.75 Now: $9.64 Return: -1% Total Return: -1% Total Return Average: 3.33% DISCLOSURE PERSONAL FAMILY PORTFOLIO/FUND ZUQ TSX Y Y Y SPGP NYSEARCA Y N N HMP TSX N N Y