Bioengineer.org | Model projects 77% fewer HIV infections with UNAIDS 2030 targets

Bioengineer.org news story Achieving the UNAIDS global HIV targets for 2030 could reduce annual new HIV infections by 77%, according to a modeling study that paired epidemic projections with country-level intervention costs. The model estimates that new infections would fall from 1.3 million in 2023 to 300,000 in 2030, while AIDS deaths would decline by 50% over the same period.

These are modeled projections rather than observed results from a program already operating at the target level. The analysis was designed after UNAIDS convened a Global Task Team in 2024 to recommend new targets and approaches for key HIV interventions in 2030. Researchers calibrated the Goals HIV simulation model to the historical HIV epidemic in 134 countries, then used it to project the impact of reaching the targets.

The modeling scope included global epidemiological outcomes, while the cost analysis focused on 118 low-, lower-middle- and upper-middle-income countries. Read the full news story here .