London Playbook PM: John the axe-ist?

What’s driving the day in Westminster. Politics and policymaking in the UK capital. By EMILIO CASALICCHIO with NOAH KEATE Good afternoon.

This is Emilio Casalicchio. THURSDAY CHEAT SHEET — John Healey needs to find almost £30 billion to keep government business ticking over and boost defense. — The chancellor clarified welfare won’t be cut before the next election after he sparked a comms crisis.

— Ministers and aides are attempting to reframe the budget as containing fundamental reforms. — Healey suggested he doesn’t agree with Andy Burnham about rethinking Brexit. — Footage of Nigel Farage’s “physical altercation” with a Lib Dem MP was published.

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST JOHN THE AXE-IST? The brainboxes who understand these things reckon Chancellor John Healey will need to find almost £30 billion over the next half decade to avoid deep government spending cuts — but ministers are refusing to put a date on reducing the welfare bill.

This doesn’t bode well: Higher inflation since the spring statement is expected to erode current departmental budgets to the tune of £8 billion by 2030/31 ... while slow spending growth across Whitehall in coming years could require another £9 billion to avoid cuts to unprotected departments.

Add to that the £11 billion new commitment to spend 3% of GDP on defense by 2030 and we’re looking at a £28 billion bill in total — just to keep services at existing levels, the Institute for Fiscal Studies calculated in its big budget take . Eek! Of course: There are numerous budgets, spending reviews and spring statements to work all this out — but the work will have to begin at the next spring statement in a matter of months, the IFS said, since the squeeze is a slow and building one.

It’s an illustration of the pressure the government is under before even starting to think about how to reduce debt or consider what a National Care Service might look like. Options, options: Healey could of course choose to cut unprotected departments. But the IFS is skeptical, seeing as that almost never happens.

“When chancellors pencil in tight spending plans in the future, they tend not to deliver,” director Helen Miller said this morning. He could also raise tax or borrow more. A combination of the two is the usual outcome to these multi-billion pound pickles.

Or there’s the get-down-on-your-knees-and-pray option: Miller reckons Healey is simply hoping the economic picture will improve and fill the gaps like magic — the path of least political resistance in the short-term. Good luck, as they say, with that. Not least while Tyrannosaurus Trump still roams the earth.

Tough talk: Despite the extremely long odds, Healey is insisting departmental cuts could be on the cards. “My cabinet colleagues are demonstrating that they can also exert fiscal discipline and spending control, and we will take that into the spending review,” he told Bloomberg. But the mood music paints a different picture: Despite all the big talk, the government was plunged into a comms crisis after Healey appeared to commit to welfare cuts before the next election.

“There will be a reduction in the benefits bill,” he told Radio 4 , after Nick Robinson asked the timeline question. “We’ll do that in a Labour way.” Panic stations! Quick as a flash after the BBC wrote it up (and before Labour MPs could start sounding the benefit cuts klaxon, no doubt) government aides contacted the broadcaster to insist Healey was *definitely not* answering the bit about the pre-election timeline, but making a general point.

The line-to-take is of course that Labour will reduce welfare via helping people into work — as Alan Milburn is expected to suggest in his upcoming report, and who notes that savings won’t be banked in the current parliament. The clean-up mission continues: Healey made clear to Channel 4 in his interview on their show tonight that the welfare bill won’t be reducing before the next election.

“It’s not correct to say that we’re going to bring this welfare bill down in this Parliament because we’ve not set a timetable for that,” he said. He’s also done a pre-recorded interview with the Martin Lewis show. Too late, mate: Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch of course seized on the need to correct the suggestion of a timetable for cutting welfare.

“Looks like foot in mouth syndrome is spreading,” she said on social media . The timetable is ... soonish: Andy Burnham told broadcasters during a visit to a Rolls-Royce factory in Derby this afternoon that the government wants to “get the welfare bill down as quickly as possible, and we’re working flat out to that end.” The PM said he wants to “get stuck into” supporting people off welfare and into work, adding: “There’s no delay there.

We want that to happen as quickly as possible.” Watch this space: No.10 is insisting welfare reform will come before the next election. But bear in mind we’re almost 18 months on since Keir Starmer had to ditch his own welfare plans, and these things have a habit of taking aaaaages to even start their long and difficult voyages through the Commons and Lords.

Elsewhere in budget fallout: Aides pushed back on insistence from the Resolution Foundation that the £100 bung support for household energy bills could have been much better targeted — since it will go to millions of people who probably don’t need it, including your Playbook PM author.

Officials said handing out the cash according to council tax bands is the quickest way to get it into bank accounts, and councils have another £100 million in case the poorest need extra help. Would an *actually* radical government not overhaul the entire council tax regime, which everyone agrees is outdated?

Asking for a friend. Regardless: The full energy package comprising the £100 freebie, the VAT cut on electric bills and the continued 5p cut in petrol tax still won’t make a huge dent in bleak household finances. The Resolution Foundation reckons we’re in the worst decade for rising living standards for the past half century.

Elsewhere in budget fallout ii: The IFS gave Healey a proper telling off for raiding the emergency piggy bank to part-fund the defense investment plan. “This is categorically not what the reserves are for,” a “grumpy” Miller said. Government officials said using break-glass funds for a long-known about defense plan shows how serious the chancellor is about defense.

Which is one way of putting it. How it’s landing overall: The government continues to insist the budget is more than mere tinkering and does include some fundamental reform. Resolution Foundation boss Ruth Curtice said it “did not live up to the scale of the challenges that Britain faces,” for example.

But a No.10 spokesperson insisted it was about “giving breathing space to families ... protecting economic stability ... [and] starts the ambitious changes needed to put the country on a better path.” To be fair: Aides continue to insist devolving financial powers to regions, ring-fencing departmental spending on preventative measures and starting to reshape energy bills are serious reforming measures.

For example: On energy bills, a government aide said the “Cost Control Framework” mentioned in the budget and set to be unpacked at the spending review will aim to cut all policies and levies that add costs to households, while the government will only sign off new infrastructure projects that cut bills.

“The chancellor used the budget to lay the foundations for much bolder reform of the energy sector,” the aide said. More where that came from: Treasury Minister Torsten Bell made similar points about energy bills and devolution on a Substack published this afternoon . It all kinda begs the question ... maybe Healey could have framed his actual budget speech about these wider reforms rather than hiding them among dozens of tax tweaks?

The real hidden budget scandal: It was left to Chief Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds to defend Healey downing a pint on camera last night and holding the glass upside down above his head — although she said she didn’t see the last bit. “It’s a tradition to go and have a few drinks with colleagues after what has been a very difficult shift for people,” she told Times Radio.

It was there for the taking: “In fairness he sank it like it was the UK economy,” Conservative frontbencher Neil O’Brien quipped . ** Today: POLITICO Pro's exclusive Autumn Budget Briefing Series. Hear directly from our journalists as they examine the Budget's implications for Financial Services, Energy & Climate, Technology and Trade.

Four virtual briefings throughout the day. Register for the sessions that matter to you. Join the series ** DRIVETIME DEBRIEF RUH ROH: John Healey has meanwhile been sounding skeptical notes about Britain rejoining the EU or single market — which Andy Burnham has firmly opened the door to.

Asked on GB News whether he would like to rejoin if it helped the economy, the chancellor said: “No, I’m in favor of accepting that we’ve got a Brexit decision. And I’m in favor of the job we need to do now, which is to make the best of the terms we’ve got.” TWO SWORD-LENGTHS BREACHED: The Telegraph’s Sapphire Hope and Tony Diver published the footage of the “physical altercation” between Reform UK’s Nigel Farage and Lib Dem Schools Spokesperson Caroline Voaden at the state opening of parliament in May — the alleged reason Farage didn’t fight for a seat at the budget this week.

Both blamed the other for causing the row. Voaden said she was “shocked and bloody angry” but “it takes more than that to shake me.” Late twist: Lib Dem MP Max Wilkinson claimed late this afternoon that the supposed altercation happened before the bit of the clip that was published.

WATER TORTURE: Environment Secretary Angela Eagle summoned water firms into Whitehall to ask them to explain pollution and performance failures outlined in a big report on the sector from multiple government agencies. She said she is mulling options to strengthen a ban on water boss bonuses — since the current ban is being evaded via creative accounting.

WE ARE DEVO: The government is going ahead with five council reorgs while 15 more are still under review, Local Government Minister Jim McMahon told the Commons this morning. Those signed off are in East Sussex and Brighton and Hove, Gloucestershire, Oxfordshire, Warwickshire and Worcestershire.

More deets here . ACTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES: Labour MP Tony Vaughan apologized in the Commons after parliament’s Independent Expert Panel found he hugged a member of his staff without consent, took her mobile phone to join a meeting without permission and failed to explain why phone calls ended abruptly.

The Folkestone and Hythe MP had earlier appealed against a ruling by Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards Daniel Greenberg. The hardest word: “My behavior had a real and continuing impact on her and her family and I am truly sorry for this,” Vaughan told MPs. He’s since undertaken further training and is more “alert to the need for sensitivity to those I work with.” SHADOW BANNED: Lib Dems MPs were left scratching their heads after Ed Davey failed to appoint Charlie Maynard’s successor as deputy economics spokesperson in time for the budget, after his resignation nearly three weeks ago.

“We’re all wondering why Ed didn’t make a speedy replacement with the budget on the horizon,” one frontbencher told our Noah Keate. A Lib Dem spokesperson didn’t comment on who the new appointee might be. LIFE BEHIND BARS: Deaths in prison fell by 12% in the 12 months to September, from 411 to 360, new Ministry of Justice stats showed .

The rate of self-harm in the year to June also fell 10%. The data also showed the reoffending rate for the October to December 2024 cohort was 30.1%, up 1.8 percentage points from the same quarter in the previous year. DOWN BUT NOT OUT: Jeremy Corbyn said his embattled Your Party is mulling a bid for the 2028 London mayoral election .

GOT ID? When the government’s social media ban for under-16s kicks in (it’s currently slated for spring next year) older teens will probably have to bust out some form of photo ID to access their Tick-Tocks and Instant-grams. That’s according to media regulator Ofcom, anyway.

My tech colleague Joseph Bambridge has the story . SEEMS ... LESS THAN IDEAL: Britain’s spy agency doesn’t know where thousands of its storage devices are, my colleague Mason Boycott-Owen clocked.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS ON THE DEFENSIVE: Budget debate in the Commons about defense spending got a bit testy both between and within parties, as an exchange clipped for social media by Shadow Defence Sec James Cartlidge shows. BEYOND THE M25 CHANGING OF LAGARDE: Christine Lagarde announced she will step down as European Central Bank president on Feb.

7 after seven years in post. “I want to have the freedom of speech, the freedom of expression, and the freedom to engage on matters that are not monetary policy matters,” Lagarde said . The two bandages on her face announcing the message were due to “a little skin cancer that had to go” and “not kick-boxing in Thailand,” she said in a message to all staff seen by POLITICO’s Johanna Treeck .

UKRAINE UPDATE: At least 14 people were killed after a Russian drone struck a railway platform in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. The same number were wounded in what Mayor Borys Filatov described as an act “of genocidal war.” POLITICO’s Ukraine correspondent Veronika Melkozerova has more .

MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Israel’s security services have been ordered to investigate allegations of foreign interference and voter fraud in the general election, the Telegraph reports . TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) focuses on Russell Brand’s trial ...

ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) leads on reaction to the budget ... Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) has an interview with Chancellor John Healey . Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Trade Minister Anas Sarwar ...

Institute for Fiscal Studies Director Helen Miller ... More in Common’s Luke Tryl ... Governor of Hawaii Josh Green .

Kevin O’Sullivan (Talk, until 7 p.m.): Labour MP Graham Stringer . BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Luke Tryl . News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Israeli Special Envoy for Trade and Innovation Fleur Hassan-Nahoum (5.45 p.m.).

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Anas Sarwar ... Tory MP James Cleverly ... crossbench peer Gus O’Donnell . Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Shadow Women and Equalities Minister Joy Morrissey .

The Cathy Newman Show (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Anas Sarwar . The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Labour MP Nick Thomas-Symonds ... Lib Dem MP Chris Coghlan ...

Tory peer Michael Grade . Peter Cardwell’s Evening Exchange (Talk, 7 p.m.): Shadow Defence Minister Mark Francois . Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP John McDonnell ... unaffiliated peer Daniel Hannan .

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Labour peer John Cryer . Question Time (BBC Sounds and iPlayer 9 p.m. and BBC One, 10.40 p.m.): Chief Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds ... Shadow Defence Secretary James Cartlidge ...

Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Cooper ... Reform UK Home Affairs Spokesperson Zia Yusuf . Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Tory peer Shaun Bailey .

Newsnight (BBC Two, 10.30 p.m.): Unaffiliated peer Arlene Foster . REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10 p.m.): The Guardian’s Zoe Williams and the Times’ Sebastian Payne ... Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): HuffPost’s Kevin Schofield and former Tory MP Julie Kirkbride .

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT ARGUE OVER A PINT: The Arguably Substack is hosting subscriber drinks at the Marquis of Granby tonight for a discussion about the budget, from 6.30 p.m. Invites needed. TOMORROW’S WORLD HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The Health Committee has a report out on obesity while the Public Accounts Committee has a report out on the British Council.

BACK OUT ON THE ROAD: Andy Burnham will chair a meeting of the National Economics Council in Scotland. THE G SPOT: The two-day G20 foreign ministers’ meeting gets underway in Atlanta, Georgia. ANY OTHER BUSINESS FOR THOSE WHO LIKE THEIR POLITICS SATIRIZED: The Private Eye 2026 annual is out today .

COME WHAT ERSKINE MAY: The 26 th edition of parliamentary Bible Erskine May is out with updates on topics including Brexit, Covid-19 and parliamentary privilege. Perfect Halloween reading. WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: The leader article on the budget from the latest issue of the Economist.

“What will not succeed for Mr Burnham, or for Britain, would be for the prime minister to pass the time dishing up more policy-lite optimism,” the mag argues. “Politically, voters are likely to lose patience with a government that merely treads water — even if it does throw them the occasional bung.” To make matters worse: The headline of the leader is “Andy Burnham’s government talks of change, then does nothing.” PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: The Debate: Chili cheese dog; chicken shawarma khobez with malfoof cabbage salad and tahini yoghurt; Filipino squash and coconut stew with green beans and garlic fried rice ...

Terrace Cafeteria: Cornish pasty with baked beans; grilled halloumi with chimichurri roasted eggplant and pomegranate quinoa ... River Restaurant: Fish and chips. ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Oct.

29, 1986 Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher opened the last stretch of the M25. On the same day in 2003, Iain Duncan Smith resigned as Tory leader after losing a vote of no confidence. And in 2020, Jeremy Corbyn was suspended from Labour for his response to the Equality and Human Rights Commission’s report into antisemitism under his leadership.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Sam Blewett . THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster , reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice. SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | Brussels Playbook Capitals | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | Berlin Playbook | Madrid Playbook | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | D.C.

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