Rubio Warns Russia and China Are Already Moving in the Arctic
Home Geopolitics International By RFE/RL staff - Oct 07, 2026, 9:00 AM CDT Rubio said...
Home Geopolitics International By RFE/RL staff - Oct 07, 2026, 9:00 AM CDT Rubio said Washington is open to expanding its security presence in Iceland, two decades after the US shut its permanent base at Keflavik, but stopped short of announcing a new one. He named Russian covert activity, threats to undersea cables and exposed shipping lanes as direct threats to Iceland, casting economic and commercial risks as national security issues.
Icelandic analysts expect the new US-Danish-Greenland defense deal to pull Iceland deeper into the Arctic defense network, while warning that China's role there is overstated. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has signaled a renewed American push to strengthen security in the Arctic, warning that US adversaries and competitors are already acting in a region of growing strategic importance.
Standing alongside Iceland's foreign minister, Thorgerour Katrin Gunnarsdottir, Rubio, on the first stop of a three-nation tour of NATO allies, cast the strategically located NATO member as a critical link in the defense of North America and Europe. The trip comes as Russia's military and covert capabilities and China's expanding Arctic ambitions drive greater attention to the north.
“Iceland sits at the center of many of the questions surrounding the security and defense of our shared region,” Rubio said. “Those threats are growing, which is why this focus on the Arctic in general and Iceland, in particular, is so critical.” His visit included a stop at Hofdi House, the site of the 1986 summit between US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev.
Forty years later, Rubio and Gunnarsdottir recreated the leaders' famous handshake, highlighting Iceland's enduring role in the strategic relationship between North America, Europe, and the Arctic. Rubio did not announce plans for a new permanent US military base in Iceland, but he signaled that Washington is open to expanding its security presence.
Asked whether the US could increase its military footprint or surveillance capabilities following a new US-Danish-Greenland defense agreement, Rubio said Washington would work with Icelandic authorities to determine what more could be done. “I think there's a willingness to do more together,” he said, pointing to Iceland's infrastructure, technology and ability to provide surveillance and domain awareness.
The US ended its permanent military presence at Keflavik in 2006, but allied activity has continued through exercises, maritime patrols and rotational deployments. Rubio said the strategic environment has since changed. “The world has changed over the last 20 years.
There's a lot of focus on the Arctic,” he said, arguing that Iceland's location is important not only to NATO's defense of Europe but also to the defense of the US homeland. More than 1,200 Americans participated with allied forces in the Northern Viking 2026 exercise last month, part of annual military cooperation in and around Iceland.
Rubio stressed that Iceland's lack of a conventional military does not prevent it from making an important contribution to NATO. Instead, the country provides territory, infrastructure, surveillance capabilities and access for allied forces. “We want to continue to build upon that as a way to prevent conflict,” Rubio said.
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“History teaches us that deterrence is the best prevention of violence and the best preventer of war.” Rubio said the security risks facing Iceland and its allies extend beyond conventional military threats. Asked whether Iceland faces a direct threat from Russia, he cited covert activity, threats to undersea cables and vulnerabilities around shipping lanes.
“There are direct threats,” Rubio said. “And those threats in the 21st century aren't just military threats; they're also economic, commercial threats that have implications on the national security of our respective countries.” The comments reflect a broader NATO concern that the Arctic and North Atlantic are becoming increasingly important strategic spaces for submarine activity, maritime routes, communications infrastructure and access to North America.
Erlingur Erlingsson, a senior visiting fellow at the Institute of International Affairs at the University of Iceland, told RFE/RL that Iceland has welcomed improved allied security awareness in the High North, including NATO's Arctic Sentry initiative and growing European capabilities.
But he cautioned against losing sight of the larger European security picture. “Russian capabilities, particularly gray zone warfare, long-range strike, and submarine, remain a significant threat,” Erlingsson said. He said NATO's eastern flank remains the alliance's primary security concern and continued support for Ukraine is critical to European security.
Kristinn Arni Lar Hrobjartsson, co-founder of the Icelandic security think tank Varda, said Reykjavik is also seeing heightened Russian interest in the region. Arctic Focus “Iceland certainly feels the increased focus on the Arctic, driven by Russian activities and continued war of aggression,” he told RFE/RL, pointing to the presence of a Russian spy ship around Iceland during the summer.
Hrobjartsson also cautioned against overstating China's role in Iceland, saying Chinese activities are “largely exaggerated” compared with the more immediate military dangers facing NATO on its eastern flank. Iceland's importance is likely to grow as the US strengthens its position in Greenland and the wider Arctic.
Rubio welcomed a recent agreement involving the US, Greenland, and Denmark on Greenland's defense, saying it was important for regional security. Hrobjartsson said Iceland's strategic location and support for allied forces make it an important part of the emerging Arctic defense network.
“The new Greenland agreement and potential build out of more bases there will undoubtedly call for even more contribution from Iceland,” he said. Rubio also sought to broaden the relationship beyond defense, highlighting opportunities in geothermal energy, biotechnology, marine industries and other areas.
But he stressed that security remains the foundation for economic cooperation. “Security underpins everything else,” Rubio said. “If you're not secure, you can't be prosperous.” He suggested that while a traditional US-Iceland free-trade agreement may be difficult in the current environment, the two countries could pursue closer bilateral trade and investment ties.
For Iceland, the challenge will be balancing its growing strategic importance with the need to maintain a strong and predictable transatlantic alliance. Erlingsson said Rubio's visit could help repair some of the damage caused by recent tensions over Greenland, but warned that wider questions about US commitments to NATO remain.
For Washington, Iceland's strategic value is tied to its location between North America, Europe and the Arctic, as NATO increases its focus on the High North and the North Atlantic. Rubio said the goal was not to provoke conflict but to strengthen deterrence. “We want to continue to build upon that as a way to prevent conflict, not as a way to encourage conflict or provoke conflict, but prevent it,” he said.
“History teaches us that deterrence is the best prevention of violence and the best preventer of war.” By RFE/RL More Top Reads From Oilprice.com Chevron, Shell and BP Pull Workers From the Gulf Ahead of Hurricane Australia's High Court Blocks Major Coal Mine Expansion Over Emissions QatarEnergy Secures $3 Billion Loan From Chinese Banks as LNG Exports Stall Download The Free Oilprice App Today Back to homepage RFE/RL staff RFE/RL journalists report the news in 21 countries where a free press is banned by the government or not fully established.
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